AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents lower on Tuesday. December posted a new life of contract low at $3.60 this morning. We are 14 cents off that low at the moment. Heavy rains pushed through parts of the Western Corn Belt on Monday and overnight. More is expected this week. Trade uncertainty is also pressuring the market lower. Monday afternoon’s crop progress report showed conditions 1% higher on gd/ex ratings at 78%. The Brugler500 index was up 2 points at 392. Conditions in IA were up 4 to 404, with IN up 3 and IL steady. NE was down 1, with MO 11 points lower. A South Korean feed mill is seeking 140,000 MT of corn for November delivery, with the tender to close on Tuesday.

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.52 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.62 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.74, down 3 1/4 cents

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.83 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are showing sharp 24-25 cent losses at midday, but are still 40+ cents off the lows of the day in most nearby contracts. Front Month soy meal is down just $1.20/ton, with soy oil down 72 points. Late Monday afternoon, President Trump threatened to add an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods in response to China's retaliatory tariffs on Friday. The market did not receive that news well. Soybean progress is well above normal for this time of year, with MI the only state to lag their average for emergence. Condition ratings were down 1% to 73% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index 1 point lower at 382. IL, MO, and NE ratings were down 7 points, with MN 2 points lower. Ratings in IA were up 4 with IN 3 points higher.

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $8.84 1/2, down 24 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.89 1/2, down 24 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.95 3/4, down 24 1/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $9.06 3/4, down 24 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal is at $334.30, down $1.20

Jul 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.85, down $0.72

Wheat

Wheat futures are trading 10 to 12 cents lower in the nearby CNT and MPLS contracts, with KC 17 to 18 cents in the red. The winter wheat harvest is moving right along throughout the Southern Plains. TX is 65% complete, with OK 73% harvested and KS 23% as of Sunday, all well ahead of normal. NASS tallied condition ratings 1% higher at 39% gd/ex, pushing the Brugler500 index up 4 points to 300. KS was up 4, with TX 20 points higher and OK down 1. Spring Wheat conditions improved 8% to 78% gd/ex, adding 13 points from last week’s Brugler500 rating to 388. Ratings were higher in every state, with ND up 17 points. Taiwan is looking for 95,350 MT of US wheat, with the tender to close next Tuesday. Japan is seeking 91,188 MT of Wheat from Australia and the US, with the tender to close on Thursday and 65,943 sought from the US. Egypt’s GASC purchased 240,000 MT of Romanian wheat in their tender on Tuesday.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.78, down 12 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.80 3/4, down 18 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.53 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are showing 65 to 95 cent gains at midday. Feeder cattle futures are up 70 to 80 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was at $141.28 on June 15, up 55 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were down 46 cents to $220.25, with Select boxes $1.26 lower at $203.94. The USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 118,000 head on Monday. That is even with last week and 3,000 head above last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction has a total of 2,125 head for sale.

Jun 18 Cattle are at $108.975, up $0.675,

Aug 18 Cattle are at $106.125, up $0.950,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $108.350, up $0.775,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.675, up $0.700

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.925, up $0.800

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.425, up $0.800

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are posting sharp $1.70 to $2.15 losses in the nearby contracts on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.42 to $82.86 on June 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was reported at $84.71 in the Tuesday AM report, up 30 cents. The belly was the only primal cut reported lower. The national base carcass prices were not reported on Tuesday morning due to confidentiality. It was down 17 cents on Monday afternoon, averaging $82.80. Monday’s estimated FI hog slaughter was shown at 415,000 head. That was well below last week’s 446,000 head and down 12,000 head from a year ago.

Jul 18 Hogs are at $82.025, down $1.700,

Aug 18 Hogs are at $77.400, down $2.025

Oct 18 Hogs are at $62.775, down $2.150

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading sharply lower in most contracts on Tuesday, nearing the limit in July. President Trump added fuel to the tit for tat trade conflict by indicating he is contemplating another 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods. This is in response to China's retaliatory tariffs on Friday. Conditions were down 4% to 38% gd/ex. The Brugler500 was down another 10 to 312 points. Ratings in TX were down 18 points to 273, with GA up 3 points. The Cotlook A index was down 260 points from day prior at 98.85 cents/lb on June 18. The weekly AWP was updated to 82.99 cents/lb for this week, good through Thursday.

Jul 18 Cotton is at 83.42, down 390 points,

Oct 18 Cotton is at 85, down 366 points

Dec 18 Cotton is at 84.09, down 368 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 84.100, down 360 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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